- 博文
集中推地别演化为集中囤地
2009-10-26 14:39:34本文刊发于《东方早报》
今年上半年房市的热门词当属“小阳春”,而下半年以来,“地王”两字无疑是出现率最高的。今年4月绿地集团以12亿元的价格拿下徐汇船厂地块;6月朗华置业公司以4.22亿元的价格购得周家桥街道91街坊地块;7月金地集团以30.48亿元的价格竞得赵巷10号地块;9月10日中海地产以70.06亿元拍得长风6B、7C地块;9月30日绿地集团以72.45亿元拿下龙华路1960号地块。时隔1年,2009年的地王再次你追我赶不断刷新,土地市场的水银柱正持续上升。2007年的“面粉面包论”由此老调重弹,土地成本大幅提升使得市场恐高心理再次加剧。
地王的形成并不是偶然的事件,其形成的原因大致可以归为三个,其一是基于土地升值的巨大利益驱动,众所周知,房地产的升值绝大部分的原因其实就是土地的升值而非建筑本身,土地资源的不可再生使其供应缺乏弹性,握有土地资源则意味着掌握了长期的升值。其二是随着城市化进程的继续新人口的导入,以及大市政规划利好的推动,仅上海而言,世博会、两个中心、大虹桥、真如副中心等陆续不断的利好就使得土地价格连续攀升,最近如崇明的隧桥通车即使崇明房产大为一振。在此之下,已成为准投资产品的房产必然会出现供应与需求的不对称,下游的供应不足,直接导致上游土地市场的洛阳纸贵。其三,今年执行的资金金率降低的新政,事实上使得房地产开发的资金杠杆得以延长,加之较低的利率水平,也加强了拿地的底气。
不可否认,地王的屡屡刷新,未必是一宗好事。距离现在并不远的2007年,同样是地王的高产期,或事后退地或尚未开发等情况并不鲜见。地王并不一定会成为楼王,稳赚不赔的生意是不现实的。在资产价格由于货币因素而形成过度膨胀的现实之下,地王的过多出现对于整体经济有近利而更有远危。
9月30日,上海市国有建设用地使用权出让预公告公布共计40幅住宅和商住用地、约355公顷,涉及普陀、嘉定、宝山、闸北和浦东新区等12个区域。如此大规模的推地,至少表明了在地王屡屡出现的市场背景之下,管理层拟加大土地供应,平抑地价快速上升的用意。集中大面积推地,无论是在实质层面的加大事实供应,以及在心理层面的抑制非理性拿地的冲动,都将有着积极的意义。但是,鉴于几年前的相当比例地王们的现状,为使加大土地供应真正成为加大住宅产品供应的终端目标。集中推地则必须与国土资源部正在推行的抑制囤地的政策并行,否则,集中推地若演化为将来的集中囤地,则会事倍功半。
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